Self-service help: how to use it, the math (with sources), safe usage, and managing your Pro license. Support is provided through these docs, we don't offer one-to-one support.
A free, educational learning tool for exploring hypothetical investment scenarios, so you can see how different choices might play out and walk into a financial professional's office prepared. It is not advice and never recommends a specific security.
No, please don't. Use a fake name and round, hypothetical figures. You get the exact same insight, and there's nothing personal to protect. The goal is to learn the dynamics, not to record your finances.
On Scenario Snapshot, use Share this scenario to send a file someone can open in any browser, free for your first 3 shares, then unlimited with Pro. Export (CSV scenario snapshots) and Print Report (a polished PDF) are Pro features. Your data lives only in your browser, so exporting is how you keep a copy.
We play your whole horizon out 2,000 times, each a different random sequence of good and bad years, then sort the endings. The median is the middle outcome (half do better, half worse). The 10th percentile is an unlucky 1-in-10 result; the 90th is a lucky 1-in-10. Most futures land in between. It's a range of possibilities, not a prediction.
Because markets are uncertain. A single number hides the risk. Showing the range, including the bad years, is the honest way to plan. See "the math" below for how the simulation works.
No. They are hypothetical illustrations of the assumptions you enter. Different assumptions produce different results, and your actual results will differ, possibly a lot. The tool can't and doesn't predict markets.
docs/METHODOLOGY.md.Instead of one smooth average, we simulate thousands of randomized multi-year paths to map the range of outcomes. Standard technique in finance, engineering, and science.
Risk is the year-to-year swing (standard deviation), computed with the full correlation matrix, because assets move partly together, the honest risk is higher than a naive average. This is the core of modern portfolio theory.
The order of good and bad years matters enormously once you're withdrawing, early losses do lasting damage. We illustrate this directly.
Today's US large-cap valuations are historically high (CAPE ~40), and high starting valuations have historically preceded lower long-run returns, which is why our default forward assumptions mark US returns down.
Deep crashes have historically been followed by recoveries over long horizons. A mild mean-reversion setting keeps very long projections from being unrealistically gloomy.
What matters is purchasing power. We convert future dollars to "today's dollars" by removing inflation, so the headline reflects real buying power.
Decades of research examine how much a mix can sustainably support in withdrawals. We model depletion risk rather than asserting one "safe" rate.
Assets that throw off heavily-taxed income are commonly held where tax is deferred or free, which can improve after-tax results. General educational context, not personalized tax advice.
Investors often underperform their own funds by buying high and selling low; our "behavioral drag" lever reflects that. Phasing money in reduces timing risk (not expected return).
Your scenarios stay on your device. Your figures live in your browser's local storage, and this version of the app does not send them to us, so we hold no copy. If we ever add an optional feature that works differently, we will announce it in advance, ask you to turn it on, and leave figures already on your device untouched. To keep a copy, Export/Print it; to erase it, clear your browser or use the Delete all my data button on Scenario Snapshot.
It's an ordinary web page on your own device, not a secure, login-protected vault, so please use hypothetical, rounded numbers and avoid real names or personal data. In this version, the app does not send the figures you type anywhere; they stay in your browser. Our host and analytics provider(s) may use cookies to measure usage and improve the product (you can block cookies in your browser), but we don't intentionally collect your scenario inputs. We don't control your device's security, so on a shared computer keep inputs hypothetical or use a private/incognito window.
Keep your inputs hypothetical there. We don't manage the security of your device, and the tool isn't password-protected, it's a sandbox. On a shared machine, use made-up numbers, a private/incognito window (which saves nothing), or clear the browser when you're done.
Our website host and analytics provider(s) may use cookies and similar technologies to measure how the product is used and to run A/B tests, so we can improve it. This is standard usage measurement, we don't use it to collect the figures you enter, and we don't run advertising trackers. You can block or delete cookies in your browser settings at any time. See the Privacy Policy.
Free includes the full planner, simulation, charts, and one saved scenario. Pro unlocks unlimited saved scenarios so you can compare many what-ifs side by side, unlimited sharing, print report (PDF), export outcomes (CSV), import a scenario, backup & restore, plus every update we release during your license year.
Pro is a one-time $14.99 for a full year of access, and it does not auto-renew. The $14.99 is a one-time charge for the year and is non-refundable. One license works on up to 5 devices. When the year ends it simply stops, buy another year to keep Pro.
After you buy Pro you receive a license key. In the app, click "+ New scenario" → Activate, paste your key, and unlimited scenarios unlock on that browser. One license activates on up to 5 devices or browsers. Keep your key private, don't share or publish it. Your key stays valid for your license year.
Pro is a one-time purchase for the year and does not auto-renew, so there is nothing to cancel and no ongoing billing, your access simply ends when the year is up. The one-time $14.99 is non-refundable. To view a receipt or manage your purchase, use the Polar customer portal, enter the email you used at checkout and Polar emails you a secure sign-in link.
Support is self-service through this help page and the in-app Method documentation, there's no guaranteed one-to-one support. This keeps the product affordable. For billing or receipts, use the Polar customer portal; for anything else, email scenario-labs@julieclarkson.com (best-effort; response times vary).
Something not working? Send the details and we'll use them to fix it. (This goes to our queue, it isn't a live chat, and we can't promise an individual reply.)
Pro is a one-time $14.99 for a year and does not auto-renew. There is no ongoing billing and nothing to cancel, your access ends when the year is up. The one-time $14.99 is non-refundable. One license works on up to 5 devices.
Invoices, receipts, and payment questions are all handled securely through the Polar customer portal. There is no separate account to create, go to the Polar customer portal, enter the email you used at checkout, and Polar emails you a secure sign-in link.
Scenarios are saved in your browser's local storage. They're cleared if you clear your browsing data, use a private/incognito window, or switch browsers/devices. Use Export to keep a copy.
Check for extra spaces, confirm the key is the one emailed at purchase, and make sure you're online (activation needs a quick license check). If it still fails, use the bug report form with your order details, or check the Polar customer portal.
Do a hard refresh (Cmd/Ctrl+Shift+R) to load the latest version.
Support is self-service through these docs and the in-app Method pages, we don't offer one-to-one support. For a problem, use the bug report form; for billing or receipts, use the Polar customer portal.